Evers’ third term question, Trump’s economic policies, what Wisconsin voters agree on, and more: 5 Takeaways from the June 2025 Marquette Poll

1. What does the Marquette poll say about Tony Evers running for a third term?

You knew we’d be watching this one with interest, after recently calling for Evers not to run again in 2026. So, let’s start here.

The topline numbers show that a majority of Wisconsin voters say Evers should not run for a third term — 55% say he should not run again, to just 42% backing another run. In one sense, I could come here and spike the football — argument validated! — but there’s a bit more going on here beyond that initial number. As always, context is key. 

There’s a complaint I’ve expressed when it comes to approval ratings among Wisconsin politicians, as seen in this poll, too. In a state as evenly divided as Wisconsin, an under-50% approval rating — say, like the 47% rating for Trump in this poll — doesn’t actually suggest mounting opposition to the elected official in question. It really just shows that most Democrats are against him (duh), there might be a small faction of Republicans who don’t like Trump (not many anymore, but enough), and that independent voters don’t particularly like him (which is true of independents on most politicians). There needs to be some sort of sports analytics-style adjustment approval ratings type of metric to give us a better understanding of what the number actually means. 

So, only 42% of Wisconsin voters saying Evers should run again looks pretty bad, but isn’t actually as bad as it looks. It’s still not particularly good, though, and the fact that only 37% of independent voters say he should run again is perhaps the biggest red flag in the poll for Evers’ third-term prospects. Being “significantly under water with independents,” as Charles Franklin characterized it, is a worrisome sign in a state with a distinct independent streak. 

But Democrats, by and large, still back Evers — 83% say the governor should run again, with only 15% opposed to another run. As poll director Charles Franklin notes, these are stronger numbers than what former governor Scott Walker had at a roughly equivalent time before he decided on running for a third term (where, of course, he lost to Evers by about 1%). This is generally how things go, though: Democrats like Democratic leaders. If you go back to the June 2024 poll — conducted just before That Debate — 83% of Democrats held a favorable view of then-president Joe Biden. Just over a month later, more than 90% of Democrats agreed with Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race. 

There’s also, as it stands, a bit of a generational divide among Democratic voters on whether Evers should run again. In data provided to The Recombobulation Area by Charles Franklin, more Democrats in the 18-29 age group are opposed to an Evers run for a third term than the rest of the electorate. Among those Gen Z Democratic voters, 68% back a third term run for Evers, to 28% who are opposed. This generational divide in his support is not a factor to overlook, given how Democrats have been losing support among younger voters, and given Evers’ age. 

Evers and his supporters have also claimed the mantle of being the most popular politician in the state, but his favorability numbers or approval ratings are not on the rise, and that high mark is partially due to the fact that not one is a net positive, and his numbers are typically pretty comparable to that of Tammy Baldwin’s. Or, as Franklin put it, “He remains the most popular of the political figures that we ask about, but by no means is it a dominant popularity.”

These numbers on Evers are far from definitive in any direction. They don’t say he’s in an exceptional position to run again, nor do they spell doom for another run. But this is precisely why this conversation needs to be had, to give an honest and thorough evaluation of this pending decision — before it’s too late. You all know where I stand on the matter. 

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2. The age of political discontent continues

Among all of the politicians or political parties or movements surveyed for favorability, exactly zero of the ten had a net positive favorability rating. Here’s how they all rank. 

• Tony Evers: -2

• Tammy Baldwin: -3

• Ron Johnson: -4

• JD Vance: -6

• Donald Trump: -8

• Republican Party: -8

• MAGA movement: -10

• Black Lives Matter movement: -16

• Elon Musk: -19

• Democratic Party: -25

By and large, nobody seems to really like anyone, and the Democratic Party’s numbers are especially brutal (an 18% favorable to 71% unfavorable breakdown among independents!). 

I continue to think the lane is a mile wide for something fresh and new to take hold in our politics.

3. What do Wisconsin voters agree on? (Hint: It’s mostly policies advanced by Democrats)

Being the mostly evenly-divided, 50-50 swing state that it is, it’s no surprise that public opinion in the state is deeply polarized and especially partisan. That’s the case on most issues, and of most views of elected officials.

Some issues, however, do rise to a certain level of consensus — or, as close to consensus as it gets here in a state like ours. 

Here are a few of the issues that poll with more than 65% support.

• Medicaid for new moms

  • 66% favor legislation to extend coverage for Medicaid for new mothers to a full year after giving birth

• Marijuana legalization

  • 67% say marijuana should be legalized (including 44% of Republicans and 79% of independents)

• Increasing special education funding

  • 71% of voters say they would favor a “major increase” in state aid for special education funding for public schools

• Mental health services in schools

  • 75% of voters favor a proposal to provide comprehensive mental health services in schools statewide

• Allowing citizen-led ballot initiatives

  • 77% of voters say Wisconsin should adopt a citizens’ initiative to put issues on the ballot

• Banning cell phones in schools

  • 89% of voters would support a ban preventing middle and high school students from using cell phones during class, and 72% would favor a ban during the entire school day

Outside of a cell phone ban — which has pretty broad support across the political spectrum, but has slightly more support among Republican voters — these consensus positions are largely ones advanced by Democrats in Wisconsin. It has been Democrats backing postpartum Medicaid expansion, marijuana legalization, increased special education funding, more mental health services in schools, and for citizen-led ballot initiatives. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has stood opposed to most, if not all, of those measures, and has been the state’s foremost opponent of postpartum Medicaid expansion. 

This has largely tracked along what’s been the case year after year, budget after budget, in this era of divided government in Wisconsin, where there’s been a Democratic governor and a Republican-controlled legislature. It has been the Republican-controlled legislature standing at odds with where Wisconsinites stand in these public opinion polls. 

From the archives…

4. Education policy polling is riddled with paradoxes

This poll features a whole lot of polling relating to education — public schools, vouchers, referendums, standards, scores, special education, the UW system’s budget, etc. Pieced together, it’s all a bit discombobulating. 

A majority of voters are in favor of voting for school funding referendums, but more voters say reducing property taxes (which those referendums often raise) is more important than increasing spending on public schools. People are generally satisfied with public schools, but say education standards are too low. Vouchers for all students are favored by a slight majority of voters, but when asked about increasing support for private vs. public schools, huge majorities say that funding should go to public schools. It’s just a very messy policy area and there does not really appear to be a coherent signal to be found in all the noise. 

5. There’s significant opposition and skepticism of Trump’s economic policies

Being that this is the first real poll on the first few months of Trump’s second term — the other came in February, just weeks after his inauguration — this is the first gauge of where voters in Wisconsin stand on what’s actually been happening now that the rubber is meeting the road. 

Questions on immigration continue to mirror those from before the election. The majority of voters favor deporting undocumented immigrants, but when asked if those immigrants are people who “have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record,” a majority of voters oppose deportation. Trump’s overall approval and favorability ratings haven’t changed much. 

But the poll does show some distinct areas of opposition to Trump’s policies on the economy. 

A strong majority of voters (57%) say tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, with only 31% saying it helps the economy, and 10% saying it “doesn’t make much difference.” In every region of the state, more than 50% of voters say tariffs hurt the economy. Whatever case Trump and his administration have made to support tariffs has not connected with Wisconsin voters. 

There’s also the issue of inflation. More than 55% of voters say Trump’s policy proposals will increase inflation, to just 31% who say it will decrease inflation (12% say it will have no effect).

There’s also the Trump-backed budget bill, making its way through Congress. And a fairly overwhelming majority of voters (67%) say it will increase the deficit (which it absolutely would!).

One of Trump’s polling strengths throughout his presidency, as well as during the presidential campaign, has been on the economy. He polled well ahead of both Harris and Biden on the issue, and his approval rating on the economy was over 50% for much of his presidency — markedly better than his overall approval rating. But as we’re seeing — with tariffs in particular — there is some vulnerability developing with Trump and Republicans on the economy. This could be the beginning of an emerging story, and one we’ll certainly be watching.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer and at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social.